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Iwamura T, HP Possingham, I Chades, C Minton, NJ Murray, DI Rogers, EA Treml and RA Fuller (2013) Migratory connectivity magnifies the consequences of habitat loss from sea-level rise for shorebird populations. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 280(1761)

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Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly alter littoral ecosystems, causing habitat change and loss for coastal species. Habitat loss is widely used as a measurement of the risk of extinction, but because many coastal species are migratory, the impact of habitat loss will depend not only on its extent, but also on where it occurs. Here, we develop a novel graph-theoretic approach to measure the vulnerability of a migratory network to the impact of habitat loss from SLR based on population flow through the network. We show that reductions in population flow far exceed the proportion of habitat lost for 10 long-distance migrant shorebirds using the East Asian